Vendredi 12 Mai @ VIPress.netFutuee Horizons confirms a dougle digit groawth in ICs
Budapest, Hungary — Semiconductor market analysts are still under estimating how good a yeart 2006 could turn out to be according to Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of Future Horizons. Speaking at his company’s Annual International Electronics Forum, Penn was still confident that his forecast made in January of a growth in dollar sales of semiconductors topping 20% this year was realistic while unit sales would grow 12%. Other major analyst predictions are coming out showing an average growth of 8% with only one willing at present to break the 10% barrier.
Penn is bullish that a combination of an improvement of 4.9% in world GDP which the IMF upgraded from 4.3% last week, a rise in unit demand and a shortage of capacity, pushing prices up, will provide the catalyst for a good year. "All the evidence is strong and everything is in place - if it is not a strong year then the semiconductor industry does not deserve a strong year," says Penn.
No-one believes that the chip industry can bounce back says Penn and there is too much of the 'Ill see believe it when I see' attitude but by the time it becomes evident it will be too late too take advantage.
Penn say the recovery in the unit demand started last May while a recovery in the average selling price started in the third quarter of 2005. Last year is seen as a market correction not a recession with the second half coming on strong after a first half depressed by inventory purges. "Markets normally bounce back fast from a correction," according to Penn. While average selling prices (ASPs) have bottomed out, they take a time to recover, anything between 4 to 8 quarters after unit demand has improved
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